This from another blog:

"There is no oil shortage, not yet at least. That doesn't mean we're not quickly sliding towards Peak Oil. We probably are, but that has nothing to do with today's gas prices. The reason oil has skyrocketed to nearly $140 per barrel is because of speculation; rampant, "unregulated" speculation. The peak oil doom-sayers are simply confusing the issue. This is not about shortages or scarcity; it's about gaming the system to fatten the bottom line. The whole scam is being executed by the same carpetbagging scoundrels who engineered the subprime fiasco; the investment bankers. The Wall Street Goliaths are using the futures market to recapitalize their flagging balance sheets after sustaining massive losses in the mortgage-backed securities boondoggle. That's the whole thing in a nutshell. Now they're on to their next swindle; distorting the futures market with humongous leveraged bets on food and oil."

If you want to read more of this the link is at the bottom.

Here's just a bit more:

"There's no shortage, no scarcity.(Not yet, at least) In fact, oil is being deliberately kept off the market to keep prices high. Consider this: if supply isn't keeping up with demand then why aren't there any lines at the gas stations like there were during the '70s?

Because it's all a fabrication. Prices are up because of speculation, that's all."

If this is all true (and he devotes much of his post to citing numerous sources, including King Abdullah, saying the same thing), then this is basically another "bubble" which will eventually "burst". When it does, "investors" holding futures contracts will be obliged to pay more than current market price to meet their obligations, they'll have to pay, say, 140 dollars per barrel, but they won't be able to sell it for more than, what? 90 dollars per barrel? It was much less than that fairly recently (sorry, I have no numbers, or maybe I should say, you're welcome). And they're already over-producing and withholding product.

Commodities investors can't really sit on product, can they? At the time that the "call" comes, in addition to paying, don't they have to accept delivery? So they have to sell, right? Or pay somebody to store it (adding even more to the cost, which they already can't recoup because the price is down).

This will suck, for them. There are probably some super-shrewd bastards that have a way to insure themselves against this, at someone else's expense of course, but much money is going to be lost here. You don't suppose that these investments (oil futures contracts) have been packaged and sold as "securities" to some poor unsuspecting schmucks, do you?

The question is, what does this all mean for, well, me? If people can't pay will the flow be interrupted?

One more question. If there is already surplus production and an artificially high price, what happens if we reduce consumption/demand by, say, 15%? Or even ten?

And how 'bout let's.

Could be interesting.

Link: http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/15474

Well I guess I'm not going to be doing a lot of Bible reading anytime soon, I'm just not up for it. The visit from the Bible folks didn't really go anywhere; they stayed for about an hour and a half and we had some discourse.

The big difference between us, as it unsurprisingly turns out, is that they think of the Bible as this "gift from God" and that every word in it is from God and so consequently they attach great significance to every single sentence, every single word even.

For instance, at one point the feminine half of the pair showed me where it said "...the meek shall inherit the earth...", quoted the whole line, and sat back like, you know, there it is.

And of course my reaction is that it's a nice sentiment, I guess, for what it's worth, kinda vague though and certainly not something I expect to ever happen. I mean, huh? Inherit the Earth? From whom? Is it metaphorical?

They seem to feel, drawing on the book of Revelation also, that at some point, maybe very soon, the "end times" (cap.?) will come to be and 144,000 people will be assumed into "Heaven" and the rest will have some sort of eternal life here on Earth (with the meek "in charge" I guess) and, oh yeah, the Sun is never going to burn out, I asked.

They feel certain that this is "God's word" and further that they are not misunderstanding anything, this is a future certainty.

I don't buy it.

You?

This sounded interesting so I read it. I'm not sure what to make of it.

By Stephen Adams, Telegraph News

"John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, has escaped an attempted citizen’s arrest as he appeared at the Hay Festival.0528 15

Security guards blocked the path of columnist and activist George Monbiot, who tried to make the arrest as Mr Bolton left the stage.

The former ambassador - a key advisor to President George W Bush who argued strongly in favour of invading Iraq - had been giving a talk on international relations to more than 600 people at the literary festival.

Mr Monbiot was blocked by two heavily-built security guards at the end of the one-and-a-half hour appearance, before he could serve a “charge sheet” on him.

After being released by the guards the columnist - a fierce critic of the 2003 American-led invasion - made a dash through the rain-soaked tented village in a failed attempt to catch up with Mr Bolton."

A citizens arrest? Who are these people? They had a "charge sheet". They were just going to walk up to him, read the "charges" and then, what, he was just going to surrender himself to their custody? Were they planning on "taking him in" no matter what? Were they armed? Where would they have taken him, to some jail? In their basement? What? I actually would like to know what they expected would happen there (probably just what happened) and what they were hoping for. I'll post if I decide to dig and if I find anything more.

Citizens arrest.

I answered the door yesterday and two women were there, holding some books and pamphlets and such, and wanted to ask me a question. I said go ahead. What would I change about the world, if I could.

Hard to come up with just one answer, ya know? So I came up with I wish people were less selfish. They seemed to think that was a good answer.

Then they started asking me about "The Bible". Had I read it, do I read it, stuff like that. They said that they're going around offering to help people learn more about it, words to that effect anyway.

Believe it or not I invited them to come back and they gave me a small book, What Does The Bible Really Teach, that I can get started with.

This could be interesting. I believe I gave them enough information about what I feel about the Bible and religion and the fact that I am an atheist so that there are no unrealistic expectations. I've always wanted to get more into (and out of?) the Bible, though not for the traditional reasons.

This could be interesting. I will post more as we go.

I had an exchange with someone on a different blog concerning fuel prices. The initial post was headlined "Want Cheaper Oil? End the War" The second commenter blamed the high price on "the greedy oil companies". I commented that I thought it was a demand issue, that the oil companies are no more greedy than any other companies.

What they have, in addition to a healthy dose of self-interest (greed, if you must), is an extremely favorable position in the market; they control supply, and there are really no rules on how much they produce. They can under-produce if they want, they can overproduce if they want and they don't ever have to sell. They can charge whatever they decide to. And not only will people still buy it, most of them will continue to buy just as much as always, (but complain a lot more).

Here's today's story from BBC, I'll add a couple comments at the end:


Oil soars to new record over $135
The price of oil hit a record high above $135 a barrel on Thursday - more than twice what it cost a year ago.

The latest surge was driven by data showing that US supplies of crude had fallen - but the price later fell back sharply as traders took profits.

In the US, the benchmark light, sweet crude contract hit $135.09, taking its gain for the year to more than 40%. In May 2007 it was priced at about $65.

Higher oil prices push up the price of fuel, energy bills and food.

The average price of a litre of unleaded petrol in the UK is now about 114 pence, and diesel has risen to an average of about 126.4 pence per litre.

And the motoring organisation, the AA, said that another $5 leap in the oil price could add a further 2.5p to the price at the pump.

"The threat of even higher prices in the pipeline will perch like a vulture above UK forecourts waiting to pick an even bigger hole in the pocket of drivers and consumers," AA president Edmund King said.

'Challenging'

The impact of rocketing oil prices continues to feed through into the wider economy.

The British Chamber of Commerce warned that companies were being pushed to the "absolute edge", and called on Chancellor Alistair Darling to abandon plans to increase petrol duty by 2p in October

Meanwhile American Airlines has become the first US carrier to charge for checked-in luggage as it tries to increase revenue being eroded by its fuel bills. It will also cut "thousands" of jobs.

Air France-KLM said on Thursday that the cost of oil would make the coming year "challenging".

And earlier this month, British Gas owner Centrica signalled that bills could rise again, as its profits are squeezed by higher gas and power prices.

Investment needed

In a more global economy, there's going to be tougher competition for oil supplies
Stephanie Flanders
BBC Economics Editor


UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown is working with international partners to persuade the Opec oil producers' cartel to increase supply.

His spokeswoman said that Mr Brown recognised the increases were having an effect on UK consumers and he would be raising this at the forthcoming EU and G8 summits.

But one analyst said Mr Brown's efforts were likely to prove in vain and political pressure should, instead, be exerted on leading producers to invest more in long-term capacity.

"All this excess profit that has been generated by the oil industry really needs to be invested in refineries, pipelines and oil wells," Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Merrill Lynch, told the BBC.

HAVE YOUR SAY This has hit me hard financially as I have to use my car for work Kevin, Gloucester

"This is what the market is asking for at the moment and we just need to ensure... we have the political goodwill also supporting this investment."

Opec has so far blamed price rises on speculators and says there is no shortage of oil.

All but three of Opec's members are already at their maximum daily limits for oil output and pressure has grown on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, which do have spare capacity.

Further rises?

Some analysts have raised the possibility of prices rising as high as $200 a barrel during the next 18 months.

In addition to falling US stockpiles, the continuing weakness of the US dollar has been another factor cited as supporting prices.

The US Energy Information Administration blamed the fall in its stocks figure on a fall in imports and a pick-up in demand from refineries.

Oil prices have set new records in 10 of the last 14 trading sessions.




"You really cannot forecast how much further the market will rally now," said Tatsuo Kageyama from Kanetsu Asset Management in Tokyo.

"All I can say is the market will continue to rise."

Light, sweet crude oil is the type most commonly used for processing into petrol and as a result, it is in high demand.

It has large amounts of the content used to make petrol, top-grade diesel and kerosene. It also has low levels of sulphur.

Its price pulled back sharply as dealers took profits from the surge, settling down $2.36 at $130.81 a barrel

London's Brent crude fell $2.30 to $130.40, having set an intra-day high on Thursday, peaking at $135.14 a barrel.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/7414093.stm

Published: 2008/05/22 21:46:11 GMT

© BBC MMVIII